# The pollster nobody cites beat them all in 2026 Published 2026-11-07 · By Pushbuild · Data: [US Political Polls 2026 – Senate, Governor, Approval](https://pushbuild.com/apis/political-polls.html), [Election Night Results API – Live State Returns](https://pushbuild.com/apis/election-night-results.html) **Survey 160 was the most accurate pollster of the 2026 Senate and governor races**: four final polls (Minnesota and Ohio, Senate and governor), average error 1.4 points, every winner right. Among pollsters with five or more final polls, New York Times/Siena was best at 3.3 points across 10 races. ## Every pollster with four or more final polls | Pollster | Polls | Races | Avg error (pts) | Lean vs result | Wrong winner | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Survey 160 | 4 | 4 | 1.4 | R+1.4 | 0 | | New York Times/Siena University | 10 | 10 | 3.3 | R+1.5 | 0 | | RedBox Research | 8 | 6 | 4.4 | R+4.1 | 0 | | AtlasIntel | 6 | 6 | 4.7 | R+4 | 0 | | GrayHouse | 4 | 3 | 4.8 | R+4.7 | 0 | | Research Co. | 12 | 12 | 5.2 | R+4.7 | 1 | | Echelon Insights | 8 | 8 | 5.2 | R+3.6 | 1 | | YouGov | 7 | 7 | 5.8 | R+2.6 | 1 | | ActiVote | 19 | 11 | 6.4 | R+6.3 | 4 | | Verasight/VoteHub | 4 | 4 | 6.5 | R+6.5 | 1 | | Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 4 | 4 | 6.6 | R+5.5 | 1 | | InsiderAdvantage | 9 | 8 | 7.1 | R+7.1 | 2 | | Univision/YouGov | 4 | 4 | 7.3 | R+7.3 | 1 | | Rasmussen Reports | 4 | 3 | 7.7 | R+7.7 | 1 | | University of New Hampshire | 4 | 4 | 9 | D+0.7 | 1 | | Emerson College | 7 | 6 | 9.1 | R+5.4 | 2 | | Quantus Insights | 6 | 6 | 9.8 | R+9.8 | 3 | | Concord Public Opinion Partners | 5 | 5 | 10 | D+9.7 | 3 | "Lean vs result" is the average Democrat-minus-Republican error: R+4 means the pollster's margins were 4 points too Republican. ## The two that missed by 10 **Concord Public Opinion Partners** had Pete Ricketts losing Nebraska by 7; he won by 6.2. It had Mike Rounds losing South Dakota by 2; he won by 21.0. **Quantus Insights** had James Talarico losing Texas by 1 (he won by 12.1) and Roy Cooper up 8 in North Carolina (he won by 19.6). They missed in opposite directions: Concord's lean was D+9.7, Quantus's R+9.8. ## Caveats Four polls is a small record; Survey 160 polled two states. Only polls in races our feed has full results for are scored. ## Sources - US Political Polls 2026 – Senate, Governor, Approval: the primary sources are listed on the [API page](https://pushbuild.com/apis/political-polls.html), read on 2026-11-07 - Election Night Results API – Live State Returns: the primary sources are listed on the [API page](https://pushbuild.com/apis/election-night-results.html), read on 2026-11-07 Data as of 2026-11-07. Every figure in this post is in the table above and the CSV below. Download the data behind this post: [midterms-pollster-accuracy-2026.csv](https://pushbuild.com/apis/analysis/data/midterms-pollster-accuracy-2026.csv) · [midterms-poll-errors-2026.csv](https://pushbuild.com/apis/analysis/data/midterms-poll-errors-2026.csv) ## Get this data Every number in this post comes from the [US Political Polls 2026 – Senate, Governor, Approval](https://pushbuild.com/apis/political-polls.html). $0.0001 per row returned; every key gets $1 of free usage each month. ``` curl -X POST https://api.pushbuild.com/political-polls/run \ -H "X-API-Key: YOUR_KEY" \ -H "Content-Type: application/json" \ -d '{"states": "GA,ME,MI,NC", "maxItems": 20}' ``` [API docs and key](https://pushbuild.com/apis/political-polls.html)[More analysis from this data](https://pushbuild.com/apis/analysis/api/political-polls/) ## Get this data Every number in this post comes from the [Election Night Results API – Live State Returns](https://pushbuild.com/apis/election-night-results.html). $0.0001 per row returned; every key gets $1 of free usage each month. ``` curl -X POST https://api.pushbuild.com/election-night-results/run \ -H "X-API-Key: YOUR_KEY" \ -H "Content-Type: application/json" \ -d '{"states": "NC,IA,CO", "year": 2022, "maxItems": 20}' ``` [API docs and key](https://pushbuild.com/apis/election-night-results.html)[More analysis from this data](https://pushbuild.com/apis/analysis/api/election-night-results/)Embed this chart Free to reuse with the credit link. Paste this HTML into your page, or use the [SVG file](https://pushbuild.com/apis/analysis/most-accurate-pollsters-2026/chart.svg). Want a table like this in Google Sheets, refreshed on demand? Free script: [copy a web table into Google Sheets](https://pushbuild.com/free/scripts/website-table-to-sheets/). ## Related analysis - Elections & politics · 2026-11-07 ### [How accurate were the 2026 midterm polls? They missed the Democratic surge by 4 points](https://pushbuild.com/apis/analysis/2026-polls-vs-results/) Final-stretch polls understated Democrats in 168 of 215 cases. Across 216 polls in 31 Senate and governor races, the average poll was 4.1 points too… - Elections & politics · 2026-11-07 ### [Decided by 99 votes: the closest races of 2026](https://pushbuild.com/apis/analysis/closest-races-2026/) The closest race in our results is North Carolina's 5th district: Chuck Hubbard leads Virginia Foxx by 99 votes out of 285,498 (0.03 points), with… - Elections & politics · 2026-11-07 ### [The governors' money race is a dead heat: $216.8M vs $215.8M](https://pushbuild.com/apis/analysis/rga-dga-fundraising-2025-26/) The Republican Governors Association reported $216.8M in contributions in 2025-26 and the Democratic Governors Association $215.8M. The DGA had three… Header photo: [Noclip](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Capitol_Building_Full_View.jpg), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons. --- As of 2026-11-07. Source: https://pushbuild.com/apis/analysis/most-accurate-pollsters-2026/