How accurate were the 2026 midterm polls? They missed the Democratic surge by 4 points
Published 2026-11-07 · By Pushbuild · Data: US Political Polls 2026 – Senate, Governor, Approval, Election Night Results API – Live State Returns
Final-stretch polls understated Democrats in 168 of 215 cases. Across 216 polls in 31 Senate and governor races, the average poll was 4.1 points too Republican on the Democrat-minus-Republican margin, and off by 6 points either way. 34 polls showed the wrong candidate ahead and 12 more showed a tie.
Where the polls missed most
| Race | Winner | Result | Poll average | Polls | Polling miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VT Governor | Phil Scott (R) | R+6.6 | D+2.5 | 2 | 9.1 pts too Democratic |
| TX Senate | James Talarico (D) | D+12.1 | D+3.1 | 28 | 9 pts too Republican |
| TX Governor | Gina Hinojosa (D) | D+7.1 | R+1.9 | 21 | 9 pts too Republican |
| GA Senate | Jon Ossoff (D) | D+18 | D+9.2 | 6 | 8.9 pts too Republican |
| GA Governor | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) | D+8.7 | R+0.2 | 8 | 8.9 pts too Republican |
| NC Senate | Roy Cooper (D) | D+19.6 | D+10.9 | 8 | 8.7 pts too Republican |
| SD Senate | Mike Rounds (R) | R+21 | R+12.8 | 5 | 8.2 pts too Democratic |
| NM Senate | Ben R Lujan (D) | D+26.5 | D+19 | 1 | 7.5 pts too Republican |
| CA Governor | Xavier Becerra (D) | D+30.4 | D+23.4 | 9 | 7 pts too Republican |
| SD Governor | Larry Rhoden and Tony Venhuizen (R) | R+27 | R+20 | 1 | 7 pts too Democratic |
| ID Senate | Jim Risch (R) | R+23 | R+16.5 | 2 | 6.5 pts too Democratic |
| RI Senate | John F. Reed (D) | D+37.5 | D+31 | 1 | 6.5 pts too Republican |
Texas: 18 of 21 polls had the wrong winner
21 final polls of the Texas governor's race; 18 had Greg Abbott ahead. The poll average was Abbott +1.9. Gina Hinojosa won by 7.1. In the Senate race the average was Talarico +3.1 and he won by 12.1; Trafalgar's last poll had it tied at 48-48.
The misses that ran the other way
It was not uniform. Polls overstated the non-Republican side in Vermont (Phil Scott won by 6.6 with the two-poll average at Janoo +2.5), South Dakota (Rounds +21.0 against a +12.8 average), Idaho and Nebraska. These are smaller, lightly polled states; the big misses toward Republicans were in heavily polled ones.
How we measured
Every general-election poll ending in the last three weeks, matched to the two candidates who finished first and second. Each pollster's polls count separately. Results are unofficial and will move as counties certify.
Sources
- US Political Polls 2026 – Senate, Governor, Approval: the primary sources are listed on the API page, read on 2026-11-07
- Election Night Results API – Live State Returns: the primary sources are listed on the API page, read on 2026-11-07
Data as of 2026-11-07. Every figure in this post is in the table above and the CSV below.
Download the data behind this post: midterms-polls-vs-results-2026.csv · midterms-poll-errors-2026.csv
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